Falling Wedge

That Worked Out Well.

2006-08-23T13:43:00.000-04:00

The S&P made it up to 1300 and was rejected exactly like I said it would be in this blog. IWM is the biggest percent loser in the group of DIA, QQQQ, SPY, MDY, IWM so it looks like I picked the right short to boot.

Brutal pump and dump this morning.

Tags: trading, IWM

Taking Today Off...

2006-08-21T14:29:00.000-04:00

In honor of the Yankees/Red Sox game.

Holding IWM short.

Good luck to everyone today.

Tags: trading

Cody Willard...

2006-08-18T10:17:00.000-04:00

The latest entry to Cody Willard's Blog on RealMoney.com...

Fear and Leveling on Wall Street
9:55 AM EDT
Who's more scared, bulls or bears? Both sides have a lot to lose right now

U-s-e-l-e-s-s.

We know Willard, you're in all cash and proud. What a great hedge fund you must run. A savings account with a shitload of fees.

Give me a break.

Tags: TheStreet.com, Cody Willard

Short Some XLE

2006-08-18T10:14:00.000-04:00

Shorting a small amount of XLE looking for it to break through the 50 day SMA.

Tags: trading, XLE, ETF

Small Craps Cah-rashing

2006-08-18T10:10:00.000-04:00

Everyone wave bye bye to the Rascal 2000.

Tags: trading, IWM, ETF

Mark Haines

2006-08-18T09:53:00.000-04:00

CNBCTV's Mark Haines, in his typical sing-song voice, just belted out "shares of HPQ and DELL are surging this week, is it too late to get in?".

I know you only work once or twice a week, Mark, but is it too much to ask for you to have some sort of remote clue of what is going on around you?

He'll read (sing) anything you put on that teleprompter.

Mark Haines, the Ron Burgundy of CNBC.

Tags: Mark Haines, CNBC

Was DULL a Classic Pump and Dump Or What?

2006-08-18T09:10:00.000-04:00

I reckon a lot of folks were snookered by the pros who bought DELL up on the exploding battery recall news. There was a boatload of distribution yesterday as the big money who ran the shares up moved them to the accounts of retail investors who were looking for a reaction similar to HPQ. People would be so much better off if there were people on TV teaching them how to read a chart rather than watching the Gazzz Bag throw foam bulls at a monkey dressed as a Geisha.

I'm holding short here. The MO decision will be a perfect way to mask distribution in individual sectors while keeping the 'front page' index from looking too ugly. If this the boys' game plan, then we probably won't see any major declines until next week.

I've still got a lot of cash raised from the SMH campaign, and the nice scalps on the mini-reversal of the IWM yesterday helped me regain my footing.

We'll see how the day develops.

Tags: DELL, HPQ, Cramer, MO, crooks, SMH, IWM, trading

Hilarious.

2006-08-17T14:02:00.000-04:00

I'm continuing my short scalps on the IWM. It's not easy work, but someone's got to take the other side of the buy programs' trades. We hit SPX 1300 like I've been calling for (although sooner than I thought we would get there) so this could be it for a little while. That's where my money is, anyway.

Anyone listening to Cramer Radio is probably spitting up their drinks laughing listening to him proclaim that 'tech isn't dead' after the SMH has rose from 30.50 to 33.

I guess barking up the wrong oily tree has been just too painful for his ego.

Tags: Cramer, Oil, IWM, SPX, SMH, ETF, trading, Real Money

Just Layed the Short Scalp On

2006-08-17T11:43:00.000-04:00

Shorted IWM @ 71.01, .20 trailing stop. Decent sized short, bigger than the nibbles I was doing yesterday.

Ok, back to the fetal position.

Tags: trading, IWM, ETF

Speaking of the Gazzz Man...

2006-08-17T10:46:00.001-04:00

Cramer has been pumping oily stocks all week long while the market rotates out of "King" HAL and into the SMH. Nothing like getting bullish on the wrong sector when the market finally does turn, eh, Gazz Bag?

Ugly.

Tags: Cramer, Haliburton, SMH

The Gazzz Man

2006-08-17T10:20:00.000-04:00

Cramer Vs Chimp

No Comment.

Tags: Cramer, Mad Money

Almost There...

2006-08-17T10:11:00.000-04:00

IWM is approaching its 200 day SMA @ 70.71. I'm going to be attempting a decent sized scalp at these levels in an attempt to repair this trade.

Tags: trading, IWM, ETF

Market Rallies

2006-08-17T07:43:00.000-04:00

A trader who I often talk with during the day had the following to say about market rallies.

Even when I'm making money on the long side I hate one thing about market rallies: it brings out the morons in droves. Just look at the kind of stupidity being posted here this evening. I can't stand to read it. One guy claims the market cap of INTC went up by more than that of AMD today so he wins. Another claims that a short interest of 1.2% indicates that 98.8% of some population (he wasn't specific enough to identify exactly what he thinks he means) is bullish therefore INTC must be going up. Good God, I realize having such ignorance operating in the market makes it easier to make money, but I still find the ignorance itself rather revolting. I may have to stop reading this crap for a little while.

There are lots of retards on the long side in a stock like Intel (INTC). It's no so much that they are stupid in other walks of life (or at least this is what I like to tell myself), it's just that they aren't able to relate to the financial markets. In every other situation in their life they are taught to pick a side and route for that side until the bitter end.

Be a Democrat, Hate the Republicans.

Be a Yankees Fan, Hate the Red Sox.

Be an American, Hate the Soviets.

They try to apply this logic that works just dandily for them normally to a liquid situation like the stock market and it, quite frankly, makes them act like complete fools. The gentleman who noted that INTC's market cap had grown more than AMD's sounded eerily like one partisan political commentator from the CNN show Crossfire attempting to 'win' a debate with the other. He was supporting the home team. Standing erect. Staying loyal for the long term. For better or for worse.

The fact that people are conditioned to think like this is why we, and every institution on the planet with access to a computer and internet connection, are able to take these people's money day after day after day.

Tags: trading, Cramerica

Selling More IWM

2006-08-16T12:51:00.000-04:00

Selling a little more IWM here, 70.15.

I'll get more serious about this at the 200 day SMA, like I said.

Tags: trading, IWM, ETF

Buy Program

2006-08-16T10:54:00.000-04:00

Holding my smaller IWM short. I still believe RUT 700.0 could fail. If it moves up I will get more short at the 200 day SMA.

Tags: trading, IWM, ETF

I'm Just A Small Small Stock...

2006-08-16T10:29:00.000-04:00

With a small small cap.

And gittin smaller!

Whuh-oh, hold on, Mortimer!

Tags: trading, ETF, IWM

Why Can't We All Just Get Along?

2006-08-16T10:01:00.000-04:00

Because it's just too fun to take the money of the penny ante 'operators' like Nailzzz Dykstra.

The AMAT Jan 12.5 Call is trading @ 3.3 x 3.5

To his credit, Lunnard said to buy in @ 3.3 in his article, but I know when I was reading it they were already trading at 3.7. Either way, AMAT is down 2%, and the market is reversing so things don't look good over there.

I got short IWM on the second move up, but alas, not as much as I would have liked. Oh well, rarely is there a day where I feel like I did everyting exactly right. I didn't think the SPX could break 1288. It did, but it's gone right back down there. If we see another buy program I'll sell to that one too. I think the weak put holders have either sold back to the market makers or hedged enough that they are ready to flip this burger over and grill the other side.

My short position is a work in progress and I do have a stop set to bail me out if we quickly shoot to a new HOD at which point I will reevaluate what's going on.

Today was really set up to be a sell off day, but with Suze Orman of all people posting articles on how short ETFs you had to figure getting short last night was just too easy.

Not that too easy never works.

Right, Nailzz?

Tags: trading, AMAT, IWM, ETF, Lenny Dykstra, Suze Orman, TheStreet.com

Mikey Splinter Slept Through Lunny Dykstra's Victory Party

2006-08-16T09:06:00.000-04:00

Could this guy have sounded more bored during his conference call? I guess they can't all be Johnny Chambers, Nailzz!

Whuh-oh, let's see where them calls open up!

Tags: TheStreet.com, Lenny Dykstra, AMAT

Boooo CNBC. Hooray Pump!

2006-08-16T08:53:00.000-04:00

Well, I got the pump I wanted.

Now comes the tricky part, daytrading this thing up and at the same time looking for the short term top. Looking out into the future a little bit I see us making a short term top here with the final pump coming after the next fed meeting in September when Bunjuman says whatever it is he's going to say. Of course, this is just talk for now, we have to see what our setup is going into that event.

IWM is my short candidate. When I see the top being formed I'll start to go short IWM. Cathcing the reversal is always dangerous, but it's how you make the big loot.

Tags: trading, IWM, SMH, ETF

Sold the Last of the SMH; CPI tomorrow.

2006-08-15T14:57:00.000-04:00

Sold the last of the SMH @ 32.02.

All in all, a good trade starting @ 30.57 and scaling out on the way up to 32.02. It's all about the low risk entry points as a fellow trader said to me earlier today.

While a short of the up-two-percent IWM is very tempting here, I can't bring myself to gamble infront of tomorrow morning's circus. I'll sit here in cash and watch the action carefully tomorrow morning. I'm prepared to ride it up again using moderatley sized trades with responsible stops, but I'm on the lookout for a shortable top.

If the boys in Chicago don't pump the futures tomorrow morning it'll be a total bummer, but honestly I can live with it if the market stays range bound.

On a sidenote, in the last two hours Gazzz Bag was calling for both a final hour sell off and a short squeeze in the QQQQ. I guess being dead wrong pumping oil/infratrstucture all week hasn't been the best possible thing for his mental health.

Tags: Cramer, trading, IWM, SMH, ETF, CPI

Admit It

2006-08-15T11:54:00.000-04:00

You keep thinking that mid-day reversal is coming, don't you?

Staying 10 paces away from my screens is helping me avoid Bear Traps.

Tags: trading

The Gazzz Man Speaks

2006-08-15T11:23:00.000-04:00

From Cramer's Blog on RealMoney.com:

Scared Shorts Are Making Deere Leap
11:03 AM EDT
Shorts are liquidating their put positions, and that's pushing the stock upward.

You're three hours late, Gazzz Bag. Isn't this the same guy who constantly berates the 'media' for reporting reactive news items that can't make you any money?

Tags: Cramer, TheStreet.com, Mad Money

All They Needed Was...

2006-08-15T11:05:00.000-04:00

All these stocks needed was a little room to wiggle (and Bob Pisani to start getting nervous/depressed) to make an assault on their HODs.

Bear Traps are being set everywhere to try and snooker retail into selling/shorting strength like they've been able to do lately. Notice all of the charts shaped like W's this morning?

If I had to guess, and I don't, but if I did, I would guess we see strength again tomorrow. There's five more hours to deal with today first.

Tags: Bob Pisani, CNBC, trading

Lots of Stocks Right At Resistance...

2006-08-15T10:23:00.000-04:00

Pretty interesting morning.

A few thing I'm watching gapped right up to their 50 day SMAs. I'm giving my longs (SMH included) room to wiggle here to see if a buy program can't push a few of these things up and over resistance.

Here are the levels I'm watching for the SMH and a few of it's components:

SMH 31.70
INTC 17.86
AMAT 15.85
NSM 23.23

Pisani is out of control this morning on CNBC. I haven't heard him pump this vigorously in weeks. Set responsible stops.

Tags: CNBC, pumpers, Bob Pisani, Intel, INTC, AMAT, NSM, SMH, trading, ETF

Cody Willard should work for CNBC

2006-08-15T09:58:00.000-04:00

Cody Willard of TSCaM should really trade his TheStreet.com shares for shares of General Electric; he'd fit right in there.

Incrementally More Bullish
9:46 AM EDT
That leaves the question of measurement, but the PPI numbers sure hit the right notes.

You'd have to be a fool to believe this mornings trading action is based on Wall Street denizens thinking they've got a read on Bunjuman based on one PPI number. You would think a hedge fund manager like Cody Willard would be able to offer something a little more actionable than "The market went up so I'm a lil more bullish cause Bunjumun is gunna cut!"

Lenny Dykstra may be a ex(?)-drunk degenerate gambler but at least he's giving readers something they can trade on.

Kind of.

Tags: Cramer, Cody Willard, TheStreet.com, CNBC, pumpers, Lenny Dykstra

What's Happening...

2006-08-15T08:46:00.000-04:00

Don't buy into what CNBC will surely be telling you all day today: that the market rallied because it believes they can predict what the Fed will do based on the PPI. The truth is the boys in Chicago could have dumped just as easily as they pumped when that number came out citing a weakening economy.

So why didn't they?

They have to make the retail investor's put options worthless of course.

Trade with that in mind. The 'reasons' for market moves are made up by people at CNBC to try to explain in the simplest way what happened to the Mad Money watching public. The truth is the elephants in the market just do whatever will make them the most money at that exact moment. They can move the markets more easily than ever with the push of a button through the futures and ETFs (the tails that wag the dog).

Tags: CNBC, Cramer

SPY Up A Buck

2006-08-15T08:27:00.000-04:00

SPY is up about a dollar in the pre after the PPI numbers. This could be what sparks what I believe will be the final rally before the big drop this fall. I'm still looking for the SPY to touch ~130 here.

My game plan is to get long with tight stops. I still have some SMH left, and it looks like this is only going to help get it over its 50 day SMA. Also watch INTC to move over its 50 day SMA. If it can hold up there it is only good for the SMH.

Tags: stocks, pumpers, SMH, Intel, INTC, SPY, SPX

SMH Stop Loss Put In @ 30.97

2006-08-14T14:16:00.000-04:00

Locking in a .50 profit on the remaining 1/4 of my SMH shares with a stop loss @ 30.97. If it gets taken out this will still have been a highly profitable trade.

Sell high, kiddies. (Or if you're Nailzz Dykstra, buy Long Dated Deep In The Money Call Options(TM) high!)

Tags: trading, ETF, SMH

Sold another 1/4 of the SMH position up here.

2006-08-14T13:30:00.000-04:00

Sold another 1/4 of the SMH position up here @ 31.40. I now have 1/4 of my original position from Friday.

Tags: SMH, trading

Lunnurd Dykstra over at TSCaM wants to hit a single with AMAT

2006-08-14T12:06:00.000-04:00

Lunnurd wants his (Cramer's) homegamers to come on back to the Cow's Udder after his big CSCO call.

Let me reel off some of Applied Materials' numbers: a forward P/E of 12.75, a PEG ratio is 0.86 (anything under 1 is flat-out incredible), and a return on equity still above its forward P/E at 13.17%. Applied Materials has $7.46 billion in revenue, a very comfortable $3.33 billion in cash, and to top it off, the company brings in over $660 million in free cash flow. The stock is already about 20% undervalued according to ValuEngine, my research Web site.
Now that we have our edge, it's time to let you know what deep-in-the-money call we're going to use to make our bet: the AMAT January $12.50 calls

*emphasis mine.

Oh, Lennyrd.

Don't you just love this? Our boy Nails Dykstra and other 'fundamentalist' 'investors' claim to have an 'edge' by reading a couple of press releases and the Yahoo! Finance summary that are available to everyone. The real hard-ons will even throw in some bogus 'analysis' from some pay site like Morningstar (of course, funnily enough, these are the same people who try to 'break the analysts').

I'm so torn here. As funny as it would be to watch Mikey Splinter make a baggy out of Lunny and Friends, AMAT coming through is kinda sorta key to the SMH breaking out if its range (to the upside).

I suppose my advantage is that if I'm wrong I'll be able to sell my SMH down a few ticks still solidly in the green. If Nailzz is wrong, he's going to have that cash tied up in a bunch of severly underwater "Long Dated (Maybe no longer so much) Deep In The Money Call Options" (TM).

Tags: Lenny Dykstra, TheStreet.com, Cramer, Mad Money, Booyah, Applied Materials, AMAT, trading, options

Get out your Gazzz Masks...

2006-08-14T11:41:00.000-04:00

Here we go again.

11:33ET Two birds tested positive for mild form of H5N1, USDA's Dehaven says - Bloomberg :BCRX, AVAN, EMBT, NVAX, SVA, HEB, GNBT [©Briefing.com]

If there is a Bird Flu Redux(TM) in the market here is a look at one that worked well last time.

I wouldn't get too involved in this one on the long side unless you feel like Joe Operator this morning and wan't to take advantage of the volatility. However, if I see a Golden Cross here (the 20 day SMA crossing over the 50 day SMA) I might get reinterested in this one and ride the pony again. Chances are this will just be a shortable bounce. Either way, it's made it's way back on my screens.

(Jesus, is this actually another Falling Wedge? Mr. Aichon must be thrilled with me.)

Tags: Biotech, GNBT, Bird Flu, trading

SMH resistance at the 50 day SMA

2006-08-14T10:30:00.000-04:00

Still holding onto half of my SMH position waiting for an assault on the 50 day SMA @ 31.68. I will let go of the rest there, but will jump back in if we break through convincingly as that should be what sparks the rally that gives us another ~2.50 on the SPY.

Medium term it is bearish in here, but it's hard to make a significant move to the downside without making a temporary top. If we can make an ascent during the low volume vacation days of August it'll set up a great short opportunity.

The IWM looks like an especially good short candidate when the market finally makes its short term top.

If Bloatzilla (INTC) sees a CSCOesque pump-job we should get the move up in the SMH we need. CNBCircus could tell their 'intelligent and sophisticated' viewers that Paul Otellini's restructuring was the 'reason' for the pump.

Tags: SMH, SPY, IWM, Intel, INTC, Cisco, CSCO, CNBC, Bear Market

Uhhh....

2006-08-14T09:43:00.000-04:00

Did Erin Burnett really just call the Dow Jones Transportation Average "The Tranny"?

CNBC, First In Business Worldwide.

Tags: CNBC, Erin Burnett, Dow Jones, Tranny

Opening Bell

2006-08-14T09:19:00.000-04:00

SMH up 1% @ the open about on par with the QQQQ.

Letting go of 1/2 of my SMH buy from last Friday to start the week off on the right foot.

Tags: trading, SMH, QQQQ

Crispy Fresh Minty Green Futures

2006-08-14T07:40:00.000-04:00

Nasdaq-100 futures up 10 points @ 7:39 AM. That can't be the best possible thing for SMH shorts, can it?

The circus clowns at CNBCTV are already pumping the 'peace settlement' as the 'reason' for the move giddily asking their guests if they think $60 oil is on the horizon. Things seem to be going 'according to plan'.

Now, the worst thing I could do here is get overly excited, but this might be the beginning of the late summer pump to SPY 130 that I've been expecting. If this is the case, it would be confirmed by the SMH moving above its 50 day MA.

At worst, I should be able to flip the SMH for a decent gain this morning.

Dow Futures +60
Nasdaq Futures +10
S&P Futures +6.5

Tags: trading, futures, SMH, SPY, DJI, NDX, SPX, CNBC, pumpers

Friday's Final Trade...A Falling Wedge?

2006-08-13T12:38:00.000-04:00

Sometime after 3:30 PM on Friday I went long the SMH @ 30.57 with a stop @ 30.47 looking for a bounce off the 20 day SMA. I'm in no way married to the semis, and unless we see more encouraging action than expected I will dump this on the initial bonuce Monday morning.

On second look, I think this chart may qualify as a Falling Wedge Candidate(TM). Mr. Aicohn would be so proud.

Tags: stocks, ETF, SMH, trading